Home Sales Weaker, Home Prices Stronger

Since the Fed lowered rates 50bps last month, the 10-year UST has risen exactly 50 bps!

?So goes UST 10-yr…. So goes residential mortgage rates, they move in tandem. 

The 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 6.1% to 6.6% over the last 30 days. Home sales fell 1.0% last month to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million units, the lowest level since October 2010.

?The South, which had been the most vibrant housing market for existing homes softened by 1.7% as Hurricane activity (Helene & Milton) caused activity to slow.

The delta between renting or buying is at a historical extreme. Homebuilders are building smaller homes, on smaller lots, with more cost-efficient materials, further from central business districts, relative to historical metrics.

Inventory has grown somewhat over the past year: 1.39M unsold existing homes, an of +23% y-o-y increase in supply (its weak demand, not low supply).

?First-time buyers account for 26% of sales, lower than average.

?Home prices have trended higher, becoming unaffordable for many. Key factors to consider are the result of inflation:

1. Rising Mortgage rates (inflation impact)

2. Insurance costs (inflation impact)

3. Real Estate Taxes (inflation impact)

4. Repairs and Maintenance (inflation impact)

5. High Home Prices (inflation impact)

GDP for Q3 expected to be +3.4% (Fed’s forecast), which should be supportive for housing activity, yet it’s not. Inflation’s impact has hurt housing activity more than any single factor.