Milken Institute: Evaluating Credit Market Dislocations

Credit markets have been steadily expanding through the last decade as part of a global hunt for yield. At the same time, banks—having learned the lessons of the global financial crisis—have invested in conservative residential mortgages and 30-year government bonds. Both strategies are showing significant cracks, though, after a year of the Fed’s most aggressive monetary tightening in decades has caused those securities to fall in value. Credit markets have never been more dubious for investors in the face of the ripple effects of rising interest rates. What is the credit outlook for the short and medium term, and where are we in the longer-term credit cycle? Can we find a new normal in a higher interest rate environment, and if so, what will be the right set of investment strategies for savvy investors? What will be the broader macroeconomic implications of this, and how can investors position themselves for both the best and the worst possible worlds?